Thursday 9 February 2012

Business Intelligence for start-up's

I always wonder, when the economic bureau news  says around 50 % of start-ups fail in first 2 years and more than 90% start-ups fail in first five years. Only 2% of start-ups survive after 10 years. I hear the same news for last 10 years. 
On the other hand BI market is growing around 10% annually. As BI (Business Intelligence) is a process that helps the stake holders to take decision, which will increase the life of the business.The economic bureau news should be reversed.Surprisingly not!!!
  • Is it really true, that BI helps the business to thrive?
  • Does the BI make any difference in the business life cycle?
  • Can BI help in avoiding the start-up failures?
  • Can’t the start ups and the young companies with small bank balances use BI for their growth?
  • Or Is Business Intelligence solution should be used only by the big companies with bulk bank balances?
 Before answering our question let me explain what is BI and where it is making an impact  

Business intelligence (BI), is an umbrella term that refers to a variety of software applications used to collect and analyze the  organization’s raw data.BI as a discipline is made up of several related activities, including data mining, analytical processing, querying and reporting.

Companies use BI to improve
Decision making                                     - Restaurant’s chains like Wendy’s
Cut costs                                               - Wal Mart
Identify new business opportunities          - Target, GE
Launch new products                              - Wendy, Ruby Tuesday’s
Planning                                                - Professional sports team red sox, Patriots (They claim that BI is the reason for them to win the Super bowl 3 times), South African cricket team
Etc…The list is end less

It is true the BI is helping in increasing the life cycle of an organization (Ex: Walmart, Patriots sports team etc...). There will be no question about it.
Then our next question is why the start-ups fail? Is BI only for big companies?

No, for utilizing BI the company need not to be established nor it should have bulk balances in their bank.As older companies have an established process and product line, they can reap benefit from BI immediately for process improvement, cost cut down, operational improvement, financial planning, etc…The start ups don’t have anything established which they want to control, correct or to improve upon.For start up BI can be used to establish a process or correct the processes before it matures. Once the process matures it is very difficult to change. BI can be used in areas which help the start-ups to survive and grow.

The discussion point for any organization to go for a BI are
1. Usability
2. Affordability

Usability:
 If you see the reason for the start up failures, it will fall in to any of these 4 categories
-          Wrong product and market
-          Customer dissatisfaction
-          Financial problems
-          Wrong Management

Having a BI can help the company to survive these problems.
Wrong product and market: For a start up every entrepreneur has to do their due diligence even before entering in to the business.If there was a mistake in choosing product or market, establishing a BI process may not be able to help the organizations life cycle. The existing BI reports (Government or private agency reports) have to be used by the entrepreneurs to re-access their situation and make a decision. Once the organization grows, the BI process plays a major role for product and market management. BI is required for analysing various things from market reach, validating the promotion effectiveness, new customer reach, product categorisation, etc…

Customer dissatisfaction: This is the second biggest reason for the start-up failures. For any business to survive they require happy customers and word of mouth marketing from these satisfied customers. The customer reference is required for business growth. Establishing a BI process for this area will help the organization not only to survive but to grow and to out grow the competitors. The BI process will help the management to identify and rectify the customer dissatisfaction at root cause level. It will help them to validate the effectiveness of the corrective actions the management had implemented.

Financial problems: This is the third reason where most of the entrepreneurs fail. This is the area where most of entrepreneurs lack knowledge.  They fail to observe the earlier signs. They fail to see the warnings on cost increase, Profitability decrease, bills receivables, account payable etc...Having a BI for this department will help the entrepreneurs to identify the earlier signs easily and make necessary corrective actions before it goes uncontrollable.

Wrong Management: If there are any red flags created in the customer department or on the financial department, probably that is due to the wrong management. A BI process can be implemented to see the employee satisfaction level, which in turn drives the customer satisfaction of the business.

Over all for a start-up BI process is required in the financial department and customer satisfaction department. Once start-up become stabilised with cash flow the BI implementation is very much required on the marketing and product departments. Once the organization matures the BI can be implemented across organization for better cost control and process improvement.

Ex: Infosys (largest IT service provider in INDIA with 150,000 employees) had a BI process implemented on their HR department from day one of their operation. Now they were having BI process implemented across all departments.

Affordability:
As most of us think, Implementing BI doesn’t require millions of dollars to start with. For a start up spending 400 dollars on Microsoft office suite and another 500 $ on the developer is better place to start with. If the organization doesn’t want to spend 900 dollars initially they can use any of the cloud solutions from Google, Microsoft web apps, Zoho etc… These products may cost maximum 30 dollars per month. By spending maximum of 1000 dollars (if you know development on excel / Access then it is only 500 $) we have a  BI solution for start-up in our hand. This investment will help the business to survive the initial  years.

Once the organization matures and the data set becomes big, either the organization can go for BI proprietary products like SAP, SAS, ORACLE, IBM etc...(If ready to spend millions) or they can target Open source solutions like Pentaho, Jasper, PHP & MySQL combo etc… (Require only 25% of the cost of proprietary products On Average the cost of Implementing an open source solution will span between 30,000 $ to 500,000 $ annually based on the complexity and the volume.

Once an organization crosses a threshold time of 10 + years, either it can stick with the existing open source solution or they can move to the proprietary product solution.  The reason I would prefer to move towards the proprietary solution is due to ease of implementation and the proprietary products provide enhanced insights and capability for the top management decisions. Moreover they are always updated with the new technologies for better performance. To me these enhanced features or technology advancements were not required at initial stages of the business.
One more thing as we have a BI process implemented from day one, without any risk we can move from open source to proprietary tools based BI solution.

Hope by utilizing an BI solution for the start-ups  and after 5 years we will have the revised news  from business bureau as "only 2% of the start-ups fail after 5 years in operation".

Friday 3 February 2012

Facebook IPO Fever.....

The topic that is very hot around the world today is Facebook IPO filing, with 100 billion dollar valuation.

I ask this question my self,
  • Why should I invest on this stock?
  • Is it really Facebook worth for 100 billion, valuation?
This company is well managed, interesting product, huge customer base and good revenue for past year.With 843 million users and 48 % of users logging in daily, easily it will have 400 million visitors daily.With 10 cents income per customers, it can easily earn 4 million dollars daily. The numbers look very attractive for any investors to buy the share.


The revenue of the Facebook completely depends upon the user’s interest to login to the system. 
Why any user should login to Facebook at first place? 
The driving factor for the end users to login to this website is very fragile. I login since all my friends’ login to the website. No compelling reasons, no atmost benefit for me because of my login.
It is like a FAD. Marketing company were utilizing this FAD

How far the people will be interested in Facebook? what is the risk of losing them ?

It is unlike Google (take users where they want in web world), Apple (outstanding product lines) & Microsoft (from Operating systems to different product line) where they provide something that people or business required for their day to day activities. This will keep users coming back to them. They have some sustained product line, on which they can build upon.
Facebook don’t have a sustained product line. I receive e-mail from Facebook asking me to login. Most of us would have received if we don’t login the Facebook for a week.Facebook is something that is not a necessity, it is something that is always a good to have. The risk for an investor is when this FAD on Facebook will end.
History had shown the impact of these fads on AOL, Yahoo, MySpace etc…

Already Facebook is over valued around 100 times the current earnings. Most of the times all compare Facebook with Google for it's income potential.
The growth of the Google stocks with an IPO price of 85$ is 700% (Current price is 595$) over 8 years. The market value of Google is 24 billion dollars at IPO and today it is valued at 154 billion dollars.
With this equation if you want to get the same return considering 22$ IPO price for Facebook, the market cap of the company has to grow to 700 billion dollars to reach a price of 154$ per share.
GE the biggest conglomerate in the world is valued at 200 billion today. So the Face book has to outgrow the GE. Hope that will happen !!!

All said one should not forget, Facebook is already having 3 billion dollars in bank and with IPO it will have around  another 10 billion dollars in bank. With 13 billion dollars at it’s kitty they may venture into another business (as Google entered into mobile market). That business may be a sustainable business model. This calculation makes the company a very valuable target.It all depends upon what Facbook do with this 13 billion .

With these facts, I would say currently the Facebook stock is not as attractive as it is claimed for retail investors. If Facebook can provide a better business model projection, then the retail investors can validate this stock for a reasonable price. For naïve retail investors, this stock and the income potential is like a mirage. Please control the emotion before jumping into.Please do your home work.

For Institutional investors, they are well informed about this situation, they will utilise this IPO to make some money.So there will be a rush from institutional investors.
Please be aware in stock market, "some one has to lose money for some one to gain money"
Retail investors control your emotion and do your home work before jumping into.